Impact-based forecasting for decisions that can't wait
We go beyond what the weather will be to what the weather will do. By combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, we turn forecasts into clear statements about the impacts your organization needs to prepare for.
Focused Weather is a small independent partnership dedicated to impact-based forecasting. A conventional forecast tells you that 40 mm of rain is likely. An impact-based forecast tells you which roads will flood, which sites will lose access, and when the disruption will start and end.
We build that second forecast. Working from weather and climate model output, observations, and your own asset and operations data, we produce concise, decision-ready assessments of expected impacts and their uncertainty.
We work with open source software and open data, and document our methods so results can be understood, reproduced, and reused.
Focused Weather is run by two PhD physicists, each with close to two decades in operational weather and climate science across national weather services, international research programmes, and private industry.
Between us we have built forecasting and reanalysis systems, run the verification that keeps them honest, worked with satellite and ground-based observations, applied machine learning to prediction problems, and delivered tailored forecasts and risk products to clients in the energy, mobility, mining, and insurance sectors.
We help organizations anticipate how weather and climate will affect operations, infrastructure, and safety, by forecasting impacts rather than raw meteorological quantities.
Location- and asset-specific forecasts of what a weather event will do: disruption to transport and logistics, outages, access loss, demand shifts, and safety risk, with lead time and confidence attached.
We combine hazard forecasts with your exposure and vulnerability data to build impact functions and thresholds tailored to your network, so future events can be assessed automatically.
Design of impact-based warning tiers, triggers, and playbooks, plus clear plots and dashboards that show which assets are affected, how badly, and when to act.
Impact-forecasting workflows built with open source tools (e.g. Python, R, and common geospatial libraries). Methods and code are documented so your team can rerun, adapt, and extend the work.
Probabilistic forecasts of the weather or climate event.
What assets, people, and operations sit in the affected area.
How sensitive those elements are to that hazard.
A decision-ready statement of expected consequences.
We start from the decisions you need to make and work back to the forecast, not the other way around.
Methods, assumptions, and limitations are documented. Where possible, underlying code and data processing steps are shared.
We use open source software and data whenever we can, avoiding vendor lock-in and making it easier to reuse and adapt our work.
Realistic statements about what impact forecasts can and cannot provide, with uncertainty explained in operational terms.
If you have operations, infrastructure, or safety decisions where weather plays a role, briefly describe your organization, the decisions you need to support, and any timing constraints. You will receive a response about whether Focused Weather can help and what a collaboration could look like.
We keep this page deliberately brief. Detailed CVs and references are available on request once we understand what you need.